It is, in fact, almost comical to see high-profile politicians from Italy (debt-to-GDP ratio 155pc) and France (debt-to-GDP ratio 115pc) threatening financial sanctions against one of the most prosperous and most prosperous economies. stable in the world. They don’t seem to understand that declining and heavily indebted economies cannot bypass growing, low-debt economies.
With its own currency and its own central bank, and insignificant borrowing, Brussels cannot even count on the European Central Bank to do its dirty work for it, as it did in Greece and Italy. The levers are not there to pull.
Certainly, financial sanctions will hurt. But even losing 40 billion euros a year in EU money will make little difference in an economy with a GDP of over 600 billion euros.
Just as it did with Britain’s departure from the EU, Brussels is massively overplaying its hand, recklessly assuming that the country will be so scared that it will make all the necessary compromises.
Having said that, Poland won’t be leaving the EU anytime soon, and probably never. It is much more dependent on access to the single market than the UK has ever been. Much of its economic renaissance is based on manufacturing for the EU market.
German industrial giants in particular have filled border regions with factories to tap into a young, skilled and still relatively cheap workforce.
A tough Polexit would pose huge challenges. And of course, the EU remains extremely popular with its voters.
Even so, the EU chooses a fight that it will eventually lose. And in the long run, he could end up losing Poland completely.